Donald Trump and the MAGA-Verse Scenarios for Regime Change
To demystify the fog of Trump and the MAGA-Verses constant threats to launch civil war if he is convicted, imprisoned or loses the 2024 election, Battlespace 'games out' the following most likely regime change scenarios MAGA-Verse forces might pursue to capture state power.
Scenario 1) Trump Convicted, Loses Election & MAGA-Verse Sedition is Eventually Suppressed
Before or shortly after Trump wins the Republican Nomination in July 2024, he is convicted on multiple felony charges, and sentenced to a lengthy prison sentence. He loses the presidential election in November. Efforts to overturn state election results fail, as do appeals for Supreme court intervention. Sporadic violence and isolated terrorist attacks by white nationalist militia lead to mass arrests. Other white nationalist forces are driven underground. The MAGA-Verse sedition is quickly suppressed. One-fifth of the Republican Party defects. A scaled down GOP survives as a Trumpless MAGA-Verse party that now renounces violence and extraconstitutional means to gain state power.
Feeling betrayed, the white nationalist "accelerationist wing" and committed Republican Party seditionists launch a new extremist party that attempts to fortify a handful of Red States as fortresses of a future Midnight Kingdom.
NBN probability projection is 35%
Scenario 2) Central Government Collapse – Anarchy, Asymmetric Warfare, and Balkanization
Prior to the 2024 presidential election a sudden financial crash, foreign war, national pandemic, catastrophic environmental crisis, or major political assassination generates an existential crisis. Democrats and Republicans can't negotiate a compromise resolution to the crisis. The Supreme Court lacks the legitimacy to adjudicate the crisis, and U.S. Armed Forces are divided on the question of intervening to take power. The federal government is temporarily paralyzed. A handful of Red State governments threaten to secede but lose their nerve. Pockets of racial violence erupt in several states. A loose grouping of white nationalist accelerationists launches small-scale asymmetric warfare across the country. Bombings of critical infrastructure, federal government buildings, and cyberattacks to further destabilize the central government are ongoing and stretch the FBI's ability to respond beyond its limits.
The federal government's center manages to hold. Biden is forced to make alarming concessions to congressional Republicans and Red State governors to keep the central government afloat and states from seceding from the Union. A government collapse is temporarily avoided but the country is perilously divided.
The 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic foreshadowed a future cascading central government collapse scenario. Trump botched the pandemic response; the economy cratered; the George Floyd execution uncorked the largest protests in American history, Trump's election loss and the Barristers Coup followed and almost succeeded in launching a civil war.
NBN Probability Projection is 10%
Scenario 3) Red State Secession and Civil War - The Retro 1865 Model and the 3rd Reconstruction
Democrats win a hotly contested presidential election. At Trump's urging a group of governors and state legislatures in Red States refuse to acknowledge the election results and secede from the central government. The seceding states form a breakaway confederation of Red States and mobilize the national guard to defend their sovereignty. The Democratic Party-led administration invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 and crushes the Red States secession with federal troops in short order.
In Southern states, Black resisters in large majority Black urban areas participate in the counteroffensive against the state's secessionist National Guard and white militias. When the state secessionist governments are routed, some Blacks enclaves refuse to surrender the areas they fought to defend. Instead, they demand various forms of autonomous local and regional self-rule.
With the Democrat president's approval, newly constituted Democrat state governments installed to replace Republican seditionist refuse the Black Commons' demands for self-rule and independence. Before federal and state law enforcement units deploy to retake the contested areas, Black insurgents block all highways and major thoroughfares with booby-trapped heavy equipment vehicles, 18-wheel trucks, busses and cars. Federal troops and state law enforcement tanks, armored Humvees, and law-enforcement vehicles are effectively blocked from entering Black-controlled urban zones.
Forced to aerially attack the Black Commons liberated areas or advance on foot to engage in block-by-block urban warfare federal troops opt for a siege. But the Black Commons Castle and Moat strategy prevails. National and global outrage soars at the U.S. government's threats to starve or drown the Black resisters in blood. The United Nations calls on the Democrat Party-led administration to enter negotiations with Black independence forces. Regional autonomy independent city-state accords are agreed to.
NBN Probability Projection is 15%
Scenario 4) Red State Secession and a Peaceful National Divorce Settlement
The Democrat nominee wins the presidential election. A group of Red State governors and state legislatures refuse to accept the election results. Under pressure from a new splinter white nationalist fascist party Red State governors secede from the central government and form a breakaway Confederate government. State National Guards are mobilized to defend the new Confederation. White nationalist accelerationists infiltrate Blue States to resume asymmetric warfare across the country carrying out bombings against critical infrastructure, federal government buildings, cyberattacks, political kidnappings and political assassinations to further destabilize the central government.
After a brief period of skirmishes between federal government troops and state national guardsmen, Blue States and Red States agree to an internationally brokered cease fire convened by China and the European Union.
National Divorce negotiations open between Red States secessionists the Blue State majority leading the federal government, Black Nationalists, Puerto Rican, Mexican American, and Indigenous Natives delegations. An international sponsored accord is reached creating a new ensemble of nation-states resembling the European Union. Mass violence, the destruction of property and mass killing are averted. American Empire is officially dissolved. The most powerful global empire in human history expires in 224 years.
NBN Probability Projection is 20%
Scenario 5) Trump Wins Presidential Election & Establishes Midnight Kingdom of Retribution
Trump, as a convicted felon shocks the world for the second time, beating Joe Biden with 272 electoral college votes. He pardons himself of any convicted crimes, shuts down Special Counsel Jack Smith's prosecutions and orders his arrest along with Fulton County Prosecutor Fani Willis, and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, New York Attorney General LaTisha James, and Washington, D.C., District Court Judge Tanya Chutkin.
Trump's Midnight Kingdom of Retribution begins. The U.S, Armed Forces Joint Chiefs of Staff are deep sixed. Steve Bannon, the appointed Czar of Deconstruction presides over the firing of thousands of federal career employees. Steven Miller, Secretary of Homeland Security deploys troops to the Southern border with orders to shoot to kill anyone entering the U.S. that is not a citizen. The country slides into further chaos. A people's popular revolt or military coup to stop Trump from acquiescing to Russia and Chinese global hegemony sacks MAGA-Stan.
NBN Probability Projection is 20% if Trump runs against Biden, and 5% if Trump runs against Whitmer