On February 3, 2022, NewBlackNationalism.com launched The 2024 Civil War Diaries series.
The Diaries represents an unconventional approach to deliver on ongoing dynamic assessment of the threat a Donald Trump, Republican Party, white nationalist militia-inspired coup or extraconstitutional takeover poses to the Black Commons.
Through a combination of combining news coverage, strategic analysis, "gaming out" civil war scenarios, and exploring civil war theory, we seek to prepare the Black Commons for the real possibility of the outbreak of civil war, and how we can reverse engineer it to win our liberation.
New Black Nationalists’ 2018 predictive modeling in American Empire in Decline projected the U.S. spiraling into existential crisis and governmental collapse in the 2020s.
The vulnerabilities of American Empire are so profound and interconnected that a financial crash, another severe surge of COVID-19, U.S. involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war, or a political assassination could all trigger a government collapse. The legitimacy of the federal government and its institutions has disintegrated into a house of cards beholden to corporate largesse, grifting and nepotism.
Notwithstanding this tightly coiled knot of political flashpoints, history repeatedly shows, it is ethnic and racial identity that fuels secession and civil war, not political difference.
Despite their divergent views on religion, the economy, national security and taxes, low-information white workers, criminal militias, conspiracy theorists, suburban professional women, four-star generals and Ivy League elites are gathering under the big tent of white nationalism.
In August 2017, we characterized the violent 2017 Battle of Charlottesville as a watershed victory for the Unite the Right 'confrontationist militias'
that became the paramilitary wing of Trump and the GOP. Still, we didn’t foresee in 2018, white nationalists were accumulating the requisite momentum to coordinate a multi-pronged a coup that nearly succeeded in toppling the government. but that’s precisely what happened.
Ironically, Trump, Republicans and white nationalists--or what we call The Cathedral --through their commitment to sedition and civil war have opened a concealed door that illuminates a possible path to Black nationhood.
Since the failed January 6, Capitol Coup to overturn the 2020 elections, The Cathedral has escalated its electoral disenfranchisement measures and race-based cultural warfare. Preparations for civil war to facilitate governmental state capture during the 2024 elections are accelerating.
For many, civil war is simply unimaginable; for others, it’s a debatable question. But Charlottesville turned out to be the new Fort Sumter. In 2018, white nationalists in Florida were arrested for attempting to build a “dirty bomb.” And in 2020, white militiamen were imprisoned for plotting to kidnap Michigan’s Governor Whitmer.
To New Black Nationalist, these events signal that civil war began some time ago as a low-intensity insurgency and destabilization campaign. The American Apartheid project is now building toward a cataclysmic confrontation for state power in 2024. What seems unimaginable is hardly an argument when compared the unfolding facts on the ground.
The 2024 Civil War Diaries will make the arguments, proffer the analysis, and explore the theories that are propelling American Empire toward a civil conflagration. But what Black Nationalists and our allies need most to win in the perilous period ahead is a vibrant burst of Black Reimagination--a breakout moment. We must simply think and dream anew: we are operating in a new threat and opportunity environment.
America, like every other nation in human history, will change. It is not an eternal reality: it comes with an expiration date. It will break. It will splinter again as it did in 1861. Indeed, America is already a profoundly divided nation that will not likely exist as we know it today after the 2024 presidential elections.
If Trump or a Republican clone wins the presidency in 2024, they will go full throttle to create a version of American Apartheid. If a Democrat wins, rabid Red State Republican Governors, white nationalist militias, and some of their loyal state national guard will likely take up arms and secede from the United States to form a MAGA Confederacy.
It’s not a coincidence that the majority of people recently polled in Red States want the nation to divide into separate unions of Red States and Blue States. This concept of National Divorce is gaining currency—and not just with white nationalists and right-wing Republicans.
Again, Black Reimagination does not envisage fear of secessionist movements. It’s occurring in 66 countries across the world. Why not here? Notwithstanding the necessity to enter population transfer negotiations for Blacks seeking exodus from Red States, a National Divorce scenario would reposition Blacks to exercise enormous political power in Blue States. Black demands for its own nation-state, independent city-states or forms of autonomy would be difficult for Democrats and Social Democrats to refuse. So would reparations. Nor, in the National Divorce scenario, could the prospects of civil war between Black Nationalists and its allies against the Democratic Party establishment be ruled out. The Bolsheviks didn't overthrow the Czar: they overthrew the Socialist, Social-Democrats and left liberals.
So too, we must reimagine the concept of civil war in American Empire. The Second Civil War will not be pitched battles between great armies in fixed positional battlespace. It will be a fluid series of quick battles between a dizzying array of forces scattered across America’s sprawling landscape from the east to the west coast. The next civil war will be marked by the ebbs and flows of integrated warfare driven by the internet and social media as much as bullets and bayonets.
Black and Brown people will confront local police and the national guard; national guardsmen will be ordered into combat against U.S. military forces called out by whoever is occupying the Oval Office. The U.S. military will split, pitting one section against another—some refusing orders to fire on the masses, while others commit unspoken atrocities video streamed across the planet in real-time. Military forces, police and national guard will engage militia forces. The most deadly asymmetric warfare will occur between opposing militia forces. Guerilla warfare will abound in rural areas, perhaps for years, and cyber-attacks, hacker wars, and private drone strikes will proliferate as never before.
Just as the FBI's limited investigatory and enforcement mechanisms cannot defeat a white nationalist counterinsurgency, the U.S. militarily cannot totally subdue large white militia forces across America’s vast countryside. Nor can the military permanently occupy large urban areas creating metropolitan Bantustans. As Stephen Marche said in his book The Next Civil War, “The lesson of Reconstruction is the lesson of occupation failed on American soil”
In this extraordinary situation, Black Nationalists’ ability to strategically maneuver in time and space against Trump, the Republican Party, white nationalist militias and Democrats in the fog of civil war, will be decisive. It will be the difference between winning an independent Black nation-state or developing an armed resistance movement against American Apartheid. Moreover, Black Nationalists will have to navigate the global chessboard as Chinese and Russian operatives actively engage in intrigues amid this complex three-dimensional battlespace.
In as much as the confluence of events are pointing toward the 2024 elections as the existential moment, the Black Nationalist movement has a long distance to travel in a short season. We cannot delude ourselves: Trump and the Cathedral are driving the national agenda, setting the timetable, and choosing the theater of battle.
As the 2020 Action Plan stated, we have now entered a revolutionary period in which “we must alter the current state of play...and reposition the Black Nationalist movement.”
In military journals, K-Street think tanks, corporate boardrooms, mainstream editorial pages, and foreign capitals, America's coming civil war is emerging as a matter of grave concern. We hope that we are wrong, but in the Black Commons we are not seeing the evidence that our communities are sufficiently alert to the dangers of the impending civil conflict.
The 2024 Civil War Diaries is part of the effort to arm Black Nationalists and our allies with analytical and theoretical tools to alter the state of play. Along with the website’s addition of the 2024 Trump Coup Watch section, we are honored to resource the Black Nationalist movement’s preparation for the historic period ahead. Now is the seedtime for fevered minds to awaken to the moment--It's a Quarter to Nation-Time.