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 2024: The Black Commons 'Year of Living Dangerously'  
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“Do you throw the Presidential Election Results of 2020 OUT and declare the RIGHTFUL WINNER, or do you have a NEW ELECTION? A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution,” 

                   TruthSocial 4.4.2022     
“In 2016, I declared, ‘I am your voice. Today, I add: I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.”

CPAC Meeting. 3.4.2023 Oxen Hill, MD 
“You look at any Democrat-run state.  It doesn’t work. New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco are crime dens. We cannot let it happen.  One of the things I’ll do, because you’re not supposed to be involved in that, you just have to be asked by the governor or the mayor to come in. The next time, I’m not waiting.”

               Speech at Erie, PA 7.29.2023



​One week after the failed January 6, 2021, "Barristers Coup," New Black Nationalists (NBN) alerted the Black Commons that Donald Trump would attempt to seize power during the 2024 elections by extra-constitutional means if necessary.

In the interregnum, NBN urged the Black Commons to consider responses to two political crisis scenarios that could unfold in 2024. 

Scenario 1. Donald Trump is defeated in the 2024 presidential race but conspires in the post-election period to "legally" steal the Oval Office. If unsuccessful, Trump initiates a violent rising or secession movement against the federal government.  

Scenario 2. Trump's second regime change attempt creates an insoluble constitutional crisis resulting in the widespread breakdown of authority and order. The federal government collapses. In the ensuing chaos, an opening emerges to create a breakaway Black nation-state as an unintended consequence.

Three years after NBN posted its 2024 regime change alert, Donald Trump leads Iowa's January 15, presidential caucus by 31 points and by 28 points in New Hampshire's January 23, primary.  Despite facing 91 criminal felony charges, Trump has bolted in front of Joe Biden in virtually every national presidential poll.

As the country edges toward the 2024 elections Trump is ratcheting up his "Endless Winter" authoritarian vision. Retribution, he said, will be exacted on "enemies of the people," mass arrests and deportation of illegal immigrants will be carried out, and federal troops will occupy cities deemed "anarchist jurisdictions." In March 2022, he made the case for terminating articles of the U.S. Constitution. No one can say we weren't warned. That is Trump's point: his dictatorial rule is inevitable: a fait accompli if you will.   

2024: The Black Commons Year of Living Dangerously Assessment

2024: The Black Commons Year of Living Dangerously, was written to provide the Black Commons with an analytical brief in three areas to recalibrate its position to engage the Trump Predicament.

A. Inventory the Black Commons' capabilities and options to defeat Donald Trump's two-track plot to establish authoritarian white nationalist rule through elections and extra-constitutional means. 

B. Survey the topography of Black political forces' level of resistance to the imposition of an authoritarian American Apartheid system. 

C. Offer recommendations to the Black Commons to blunt the Trump authoritarian menace and develop a contingency plan if the federal government collapses under the weight of a constitutional crisis.       

In September 2023, NBN released a seven-part series "The Vesey Integrated Battlespace Doctrine." Among other things, the strategy document games out five potential election and post-election scenarios in 2024. The Battlespace Doctrine meshes an electoral, political, and armed self-defense Castle and Moat strategy as a framework to navigate the fog of an existential crisis in 2024. The doctrines' overarching aims are to neutralize Trump's white nationalist insurgency while creating a path leading the Black Commons to the gates of its own nation-state.

This 2024 YLD draft drills down on the Battlespace Doctrine's framework by focusing on the following three recommendations for action in 2024.   

-- Encourage and assist the Black Commons in hardening Black communities' security infrastructure against attacks by white nationalist extremists in the run-up to the 2024 elections. 

--To reverse the current trending toward a Trump victory in the November 2024 presidential elections, Democrats must depose Joe Biden and nominate a stronger national ticket. NBN's Demographics is Destiny series recommends grassroots Black Democrats draft Gretchen Whitmer and Xavier Becerra to run on a national ticket.  

-- NBN recommends that Black Nationalists adopt National Divorce as its signature political issue to build the broadest opposition to Trump's white nationalist regime change project.  National Divorce proposes a voluntary national settlement for the dissolution and partitioning of the United States into a concert of independent nation-states to avoid a bloody and destructive partisan civil war.     

NBN's Current projection of 2024 Presidential Race: 

NBN's central assertion: 

Simplified, the 2024 presidential race comes down to one essential question: Can the strength of predominantly white women voting for Joe Biden instead of Trump to maintain reproductive rights and secondarily upholding corporately managed "democracy" over autocracy, offset Biden's decline among Black voters, young voters, and Mexican American voters in the battleground states? 

NBN's predictive model projects if a Biden versus Trump general election were held today, Donald Trump would win by recapturing the following four states to win the electoral college by a 273-266 margin. NBN's analysis assumes the same outcome if Trump is convicted and imprisoned on pending federal or state felony indictments which do not bar him from holding office as President. 

Georgia (16) 
Arizona (11)
New Hampshire (4)
Wisconsin (10)

Total 2020 electoral votes won by Trump (232) plus 41 electoral votes in 2024 = 273

NBN's estimate as of December 26, 2023, projecting Donald Trump would win 273 electoral votes is a conservative estimate. All things considered equal, which is to say Joe Biden wins the Democrat Party nomination, NBN foresees the real possibility Trump can capture 300-plus electoral college votes.  

Trump's forces are highly motivated and committed. They have momentum, a message they understand, a plan, and they believe Trump is "all infor them. The Democrats and Joe Biden have virtually none of this mojo working for them.   

The sacred bond between Trump and his MAGA-Verse cult loyalists has little to do with political issues or fealty to the Republican Party. Trump is the party. Rather, eliciting emotion, fear, hatred, and revenge for their real or imagined grievances are the source codes of their apocalyptic vision and call to action.  

Trump flourishes because 40% of all white voters don't care that he's a congenital liar, tax cheat, embezzler, classified documents larcenist, defrauder, adulterer, extortionist, and purveyor of women with easy virtues. Donald Trump is their Lord Protector. He is the savior who will keep their way of life from being overrun by Blacks, immigrants, Hispanics, Asians, Arabs, Muslims, and others outside the kingdom's walls of the white ethno-nationalist manosphere. It's that simple.

Since the 2020 elections, Republicans have taken a scalpel to state election laws. Trump's army of lawyers spearheaded a blizzard of legislation placing restrictions on voting precincts, drop boxes, mail-in ballots, absentee ballots, provisional ballots, voter registration requirements, voter registration days, early voting, same-day voting, write-in voting, drive-through voting, ballot initiatives, polling hours, majority-minority voting congressional districts, and stricter voter identification requirements. 

Organizationally, many white nationalist militias have gone "flat" and ditched their hierarchal leadership structures to mitigate FBI attacks. Others went dark or underground to await instruction. But for all the sound and fury of Trump's threats of violent Stormfront coups and civil war, January 6, was a palace intrigue of lawyers: a "Barristers Coup." Trump's 2024 subversive plot differs in one respect from 2020; this time most of the legal subterfuge has already been completed to steal elections at the state level.

Violence, in the larger scheme of Trump's sedition is a pre-election coercive tactic and post-election contingency plan for Red State secession or protracted asymmetric warfare that will closely resemble Italy's Years of Lead from 1969 to the late 1980s. 

The Black Commons Response to Trump's Existential Threat

Black communities are lagging behind the MAGA-Verse's aggressive grassroots campaign, post-election ground war, and the information war. This gap is primarily due to Black voters' lack of enthusiasm for Joe Biden and frankly a case of "ethnic fatigue."  The Black electorate is weary from fighting and refighting the same battles for voting rights and inclusion from a half-century ago. 

That said, one of the most significant impediments the Black Commons may have to overcome is disbelief. The thought that in eleven months we may be subjugated to an enhanced racial technology of American Apartheid not dissimilar from the Israel's cantons system imposed on West Bank Palestinians is too surreal and exhausting for many Blacks to contemplate.       
Beyond NBN's predictive model projecting a Trump victory over Biden, 2024 YLD's analysis will assert key political trends moving in the wrong direction and gathering headwinds will buffet the Black Commons over the next 10 months. Without swift and decisive action, they will prove hard to reverse.

Similarly, we find the Black Commons' ability to adapt to rapid political changes and unforeseen circumstances in a crisis moment has been degraded by self-inflicted wounds committed by Black Democrat Party leaders, the Independent/Third Party candidacy of Cornel West. 

Remarkably, in both these instances, Black Democrats and Cornel West had an opportunity to simultaneously command leadership of the Democrat Party and Green Party. What they did next was simply mind boggling.     

Black Democrats Response  

As the dominant voting bloc with the power to name and nominate the strongest Democrat candidate to beat Trump, Barak Obama, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DNC Chairman Jamie Harrison, the 55-member Congressional Black Caucus, and Al Sharpton all prostrated themselves like supplicants at Joe Biden's feet. 

Black Democrats surrendered the Black Commons electoral and political power to a babbling fossil who falls off bicycles; who cannot gain the support of 50% of Democrats for re-election; who 65% of voters in a May ABC News/Washington Post poll think "doesn't have the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president"; who finances Israel's tin pot dictator to ethnically cleanse the Palestinian people; who will likely be impeached, and whose son and brother engage in dirty and unscrupulous business deals that are subject to criminal investigations. 

With Black communities confronting an existential threat, Black Democrat leaders' astonishing refusal to challenge Biden's abysmal campaign is unrivaled in the Black historical experience. Black Democrat leaders ceded the Black Commons political power without so much as a demand. 

Cornel West and Black Social Democrats

New Black Nationalists would be remiss if we did not address the issue of Cornel West's independent and third-party campaigns which could have had a major impact on the political calculus. Whereas Black Democrat leaders disappeared, West has been all over the place. His candidacy started with the People's Party, a sect of opportunists with sexual harassment issues and ballot access in one state. West quit eleven days later when the Green Party handed him their presidential nomination, a nation-wide organization, a professional fund-raising team, and 18 states with ballot access.      

West ditched the Greens in four months, saying “The procedures and requirements for debate, you have to go to various Green Party events in a variety of different states. … I said, ‘Oh my God, this is a lot of energy and time and effort." Really Cornel? 

West could have fused his following and "social justice warriors" with the Green's environmental movement.  He could have recruited young Black activists to get politically trained, run for local and state offices, expand the Green's political agenda, and renovate their brand. By increasing his threat level to Democrats, West would have empowered radical Black Dems with leverage to challenge the party establishment or threaten to boycott Biden's campaign or leave the party altogether.   

To underscore our point, West was in Dearborn, Michigan last week. The area has the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the country. West's criticism of Biden's support for Israel's genocide against Palestinians was warmly received. Several Arab leaders vowed to dump Biden and support his candidacy. As a battleground state, losing half of Michigan's 140,000 Arab American Democrat voters could cost Biden the election there. But can West as an independent get on Michigan's ballot? The Greens have ballot access, and the same position of Israel's War on Gaza as West does.      

But West didn't have time to go to the Green "party events" to address the folks who would knock on doors and pass out leaflets for him in the snow and rain. Instead, West has run a disorganized, themeless, and unimaginative campaign. West prefers to freelance on the nightshift as a jazzman like John Coltrane, "improvisin and thangs" on the presidential hustings. Like Black Democrat leaders he gratuitously gave away political power to do what? In early December he announced his intent to seek the California Peace and Freedom Party nomination.  But there is still hope for Brotha West.              
​As for The Squad, "Progressive" Black Democrats, Blacks for Bernie, BLMand Black Social Democrats writ large--they are either in the tank for Biden or stand silent.   

As we shall explore next, the Black Commons challenge to neutralize the Trump Menace is also made more difficult by political trends that militate against higher Black voter turnout.  

Countervailing Trends to High Black Voter Turnout in 2024

1. Depressed Black Vote: NBN sees no evidence that the soft Black voter turnout in Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia in the 2020 elections will pick up in 2024. Rather, the lack of Black voter enthusiasm for Biden will further depress the Black Democrat vote. While NBN projects Democrats will hang on in Michigan and Pennsylvania in nail biters, Wisconsin will fall to Trump. With no Senate race in Georgia to drive statewide Black turnout that occurred in the 2020 and 2022 cycles, NBN expects Black voter turnout to dip. Republican voter turnout for Trump will likely rise, partly as a racial backlash to Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis's prosecution of Trump and GOP state party officials. The Black vote in Arizona (11% of the total vote) is negligible, but the ongoing immigration border crisis will likely push the Republican vote and Trump over the top. Kyrsten Sinema's Independent Senate race will also splinter Democrat vote to Biden's disadvantage. If a reproductive rights referendum qualifies to make ballot, it might be Biden's only saving grace.  

2. The Youth Vote and Biden's Palestinian Dilemma: In the 2020 and 2022 elections, the spike in the youth vote was driven in part by a new wave of gun control activists and youth inspired by the Black Lives Matters 2.0 historic protests following George Floyd's public execution. Despite the difficulty of passing legislation restricting military-grade weapons sales and curbing law enforcement's carceral powers, Black, Brown, and white youth took the fight to police unions and gun lobbies.  The convergence of young second-wave BLM- inspired actionists and white youth who took to the streets after the Parkland, Florida school shooting congealed into a potent political voting bloc. 

Biden's support for Israel's ethnic cleansing of Gaza's Palestinians has undermined the youth vote among reproductive rights supporters, gun control activists, low enforcement reformers and pro-Palestinian protesters. The youth who recently abandoned Biden aren't coming back to Democrats this election cycle unless the party has a new nominee.   

3. Losing Voter Share Among Mexican American Voters: In the 2020 general elections, Joe Biden won 61% of the Latino vote, down four points from Hillary Clinton's 65% in 2016, and ten points less than Barak Obama's 71% in 2012, according to the Democratic data firm Catalist

NBN believes Democrats are slowly bleeding Mexican American vote share to Republicans. The turbulence at the border with hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers and immigrants attempting to enter the country has not helped Biden's campaign. It's a bad look. NBN's May 20, 2023, recommendation that Black Democrats draft a Gretchen Whitmer-Xavier Becerra 2024 ticket details our analysis of the Hispanic vote. 

NBN has repeatedly said Democrats do not connect well culturally and emotionally with Mexican American voters. Democrats believe Trump's racist rants about immigrants from Central and South America poisoning the bloodstream of America will drive down Mexican American support for Trump. They miscalculate. Trump's rhetoric is not necessarily disqualifying for second and third-generation Mexican Americans who are culturally conservative and whose families "legally immigrated." Trump also punches above his weight among lesser educated Mexican American voters. Trump went from 29% of the Hispanic vote in 2016 to 38% in 2020. But suffice it to say a shift of two or three percentage points in the Mexican American vote could swing close races in Nevada, Arizona, Texas, New Mexico, and even Georgia.

New Black Nationalist Recommendations for Actions in 2024

Donald Trump's modus operandi has always been to create confusion and chaos and burn down all the institutions and "traditions" that don't serve his transactional interests.  The argument for authoritarianism is always the restoration of order. Trump is torching America and won't stop until he's in an orange jumpsuit or the Oval Office.

As we have repeatedly stated, New Black Nationalists are not trying to save American Empire, its corporately managed democracy or the Democratic Party.  As 4th Wave Black Nationalists, we are acting in the tradition of our enslaved ancestors and freemen. They shouldered arms for America's Continental Army. But it was their service with the British in the Revolutionary War of 1776 and the War of 1812 that resulted in Black slaves securing their freedom and negotiating their exodus status to establish free communities and homelands in Canada, Trinidad, and Sierra Leone

Like our predecessors, the Black Commons challenge is to maneuver within the parameters of a three-dimensional political and military battlespace. NBN seeks to position the Black communities with options for self-determination and exit. Accordingly, the following three recommendations outlining a strategic approach to the 2024 elections are guided by these considerations. 

NBN's 2024 Recommendations

​Over the next eleven months, the micro-Black Nationalist movement can play a critical role in initiating adjustments to realign and reposition political forces at work in our communities to decapitate the Trump Menace.

In the next eleven months, we must forge new tactical alliances, develop novel strategies, and take calculated risks. Most importantly, Black Nationalists need to develop a coherent message and narrative that vibrates to the rhythm and reality the Black Commons are experiencing at this unique moment.

To that end, NBN also offers the following recommendations to alter the existing state of play and tilt the battlespace in the Black Commons' favor. 

1. Encourage and assist the Black Commons in hardening the collective security infrastructure of        Black communities against attacks by white nationalist extremists in the run up to the 2024                elections. The assets the Black Commons can deploy to blunt Trump-inspired systemic violence            against our communities and fend off new technologies of racial subjugation are porous and must      be re-enforced.  

Encourage the Black Commons to acquire firearms, take firearms safety and certification courses,        join national Black gun owners' associations and local gun clubs, and support Black Second                Amendment Rights organizations and independent community self-defense groups. 

2. Develop a strategy that goes the distance to the August Chicago Democrat National Convention to persuade grassroots Black Democrats to jettison Joe Biden's sinking candidacy. 

Continue to urge Black Democrats to dump Biden and draft the strongest candidate to win a              "brokered convention' in Chicago in August 2024 and beat Trump next November. NBN published a    three-part strategic brief in the Spring of 2023, "Demographics is Destiny" recommending a                Whitmer-Becerra national ticket.    

3. Develop a political strategy to rebuff Donald Trump and white nationalist militias post-election attacks on Black communities as part of their attempts to overthrow the federal government or generate secession movements. 

Black Nationalists need a substantive and comprehensive rhetorical message to divert the hyper-      partisan discourse about how the 2024 winners must vanquish the losing party to purify the              nation. National Divorce proposes a solution where both sides and the Black Commons win, and        civil war is averted. NBN is recommending Black Nationalist adopt National Divorce as its                  signature political issue. NBN backgrounded the issue in 2022 and developed a suite of start-up        policy positions and talking points. National Divorce is pitch-perfect for Black Nationalists. 

National Divorce surfaced in the early 2010s as a doctrine proposing a voluntary, peaceful
dissolution and partition of the United States into separate independent nation-states. The idea          has evolved as a solution to avoid bloody and destructive civil war between increasingly                      hostile Republican Red States and Democrat Blue States. Through an amicable negotiated                  settlement, the country's economic assets, resources, debts, land, and military weapons systems          would all be equitably divided. 

Black Nationalists advocate for an independent Black nation-state. Blacks who prefer to live in            Democrat Blue States or MAGA-Stan Red States would have freedom of choice and real self-                determination.  What Black Nationalists and friends want is exit, and the chance to create our              own majority Black-led multi-racial nation-state. 

It is the consensus view that whether Trump wins or loses he is going to manufacture violence to      maintain his rule or attempt to overthrow the federal government to acquire power. National              Divorce empowers Black Nationalists to advocate the creation of a Black nation as a sober and          reasonable proposition to achieve a comprehensive solution to pull the United States back from        the brink of self-destruction and violence. Black Nationalist would be the voice of reason in a            room full of savages, who, as Thomas Paine once quipped were prepared to "make war on their          own families and eat their young."  

National Divorce allows Black Nationalists to frame Reparations with a land and compensatory          component as part of an overall political, economic and population transfer settlement for a              peaceful separation. National Divorce gives Black Nationalist a platform to talk how our Black            nation would be profoundly different than the putrid cesspool America is devolving into. In this          regard, New Black Nationalists have already developed a Vesey Republic draft Declaration of              Independence, a Charter (Bill) of Rights, a Parliamentary government model, a theory of                      governance, and several policies covering positions from to a nuclear arms agreement to                    establishing a women led autonomous region.      

National Divorce sets up Black Nationalist to win allies from all sectors who would rather take          their chances on a novel but obtainable course of action. If Yugoslavia was able to be divided into      seven nation-states and Czechoslovakia split into two states after the U.S.S.R. collapsed, we                certainly can partition the United States America into a concert of independent nation-states that      include equitable options for national and autonomous polities for Indigenous Natives, Asian              Americans, Mexican Americans and Puerto Rico.    

If done advocated with imagination and brio, National Divorce provides a platform for a larger            discussion. Polls over the last two years have shown 65% of Republican voters are open to some        form of secession, and 48% of Democrats feel likewise. Although it is an emerging concept                  National Divorce is still flying under the radar screen. That which Black Nationalist have an                opportunity to take the issue and run with it. We should.  

​A Final Thought

​Trump's proto-fascist enterprise is a motley farrago of Republican Party lemmings, white power militias, far right Silicon Valley financers, Fox News talking heads, and subversive elements in the military and security state. Despite powerful backing, liquid funding, and Russian intelligence support Trump and the MAGA-Verse are nothing more than subcontracted political bottom-feeders and mercenaries. They traffic in violence, conspiracy theories, racial hatred, disinformation, masculinism, and the laws of coverture redefining pregnant women and their offspring as wards of the state. 

​That American Empire has deteriorated to the extent that it must rely on the raw sewage of white nationalist cults and self-styled demi-gods underscores a universal truth: every empire in human history comes with an expiration date.  As New Black Nationalist Crisis Theory has predicted American Empire's reckoning will come in the 2020's.      

The long and short of things is this: If the 2024 elections pitch the country into a constitutional crisis, government collapse, civil war, or state secession movements, those among the Black Commons desiring liberation have to beat Trump's MAGA forces and the Democrats to carve a Black nation out of the chaos of a failed nation-state empire. To that end, 2023 is the Black Commons Year of Living Dangerously and possibly the once in a millennial opportunity to win Black liberation.  





2024:The Black Commons Year of Living Dangerously, was written to inventory the Black Commons' capabilities and options to derail Donald Trump's project to establish authoritarian white nationalist rule.  

The front line to decapitate Trump's regime change ambitions is beating him decisively in the 2024 presidential race. NBN concluded that given the current political dynamics, defeating Trump is improbable if the election was held today. Thus, NBN characterized the Black Commons' situation as grave but not irreparable should Democrats depose Joe Biden and nominate a stronger national ticket. 

Simplified, the 2024 presidential race comes down to this: Can the strength of predominantly white women voting for Joe Biden instead of Trump to maintain reproductive rights and secondarily upholding corporately managed "democracy" over autocracy, offset Biden's decline among Black voters, young voters, and Mexican American voters in the battleground states?